However, “(o)n the afternoon of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey.” (Taleb 201, p 40). The turkey in Taleb’s story is being fed every day and is rather happy and content. Now what does this mean? Taleb uses the story of the turkey which is being fed every day until it suddenly is decapitated before Thanksgiving as an example of the inadequacy of how people usually predict. He will attempt to help you (the reader) to avoid being a turkey. This review will attempt to rectify this, as Taleb offers a great deal to the reader which has the stamina and interest to endulge in all 378 pages.

A quick internet search will show that “The Black Swan” seems to be widely influential, but when looking at current state of the world, it seems clear that his views may not have not been fully appreciated. And just as Taleb’s own wide range of interests suggest – he is in every respect a renaissance man covering topics from philosophy via trading to statistics – this book is a sheer delight in multi-disciplinary analysis. As the title suggests, “The Black Swan” attempts to explain why we always seem to be unprepared for the improbable.

However, many other outstanding quotes could be drawn from this book, which as a whole is permeated with Taleb’s sardonic wit, making highly complex matters rather entertaining. This rather frisk statement could stand as a motto describing both the style as well as the content of the whole book “The Black Swan”, which was originally published in 2007, and re-published with a new extensive post-script in 2010.

“Science is about not being a sucker” (Taleb 2010, p.268).

The black swan effect book